신림동수학and Postbachelor’s Outcomes (NCES 2018-421). U.S. Department of Education, Figure 2. 46 2018 Equity Indicators Report Indicator 1i: What Are the Estimated Participation Rates of Low-Income Students in College by State? The Office of Postsecondary Education (OPE) reports the numbers and amount of Pell Grants awarded each year for dependent and independent students by state.42 However, this information does not provide direct estimates of the percent of low-income youth within the state that are enrolled in college.43 These participation rates may be estimated using annual data on public school enrollment by state from the U.S. Department of Education and annual data on the percent of enrollment approved for free or reduced price lunches in the applicable time period by state from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Tom Mortenson has used these three sources (Pell Grants awarded, school enrollment, and free and reduced price lunch enrollment) to gain a relative indicator of this percentage for the years 1989 to 2016. While these comparisons are limited due to differential use of free and reduced lunch among the states and also due to different rates of migrations into and out of the states among Pell recipients, with caution, we adopt this strategy to calculate this Indicator.44 Indicator 1i(i) presents the estimates by state for 2016 and Indicator 1i(ii) displays a plot of the state data from 1989 to 2016. Using this approach, the national estimated college participation rate for low-income students was 34.2 percent in 2016. This rate ranged from 10 percent in Alaska, 21 percent in Oklahoma and Wyoming, 29 percent in Montana and South Dakota to 50 percent in New Hampshire, 53 percent in New York, and 56 percent in New Jersey. States with the highest estimated rates tended to be located in the Northeast (NJ, NY, NH, MA, CT, and RI). States with the lowest rates were observed by Mortenson to have strong energy-producing industries (AK, OK, WY, NM, WV, KY, LA, TX) where higher paying jobs might be available without a college degree.45 Indicator 1i(ii) shows considerable variation over time in college participation rates by state. For virtually all states, college participation rates increased with the Great Recession and then declined somewhat in the recovery period. The national average college participation rate for low-income students was 26 percent in 2008, rose to 39 percent in 2011 and 2012, and has since declined to 34 percent. Changes in college participation rates over time may also be impacted by the availability of Year Round Pell from 2008 to 2011. 42 U.S. Department of Education, Office of Postsecondary Education, Office of Student Financial Aid, Federal Pell Grant Program Annual Data Reports, https://www2.ed.gov/finaid/prof/resources/data/pell-data.html. 43 Mortenson T. (2017). College participation rates for students from low-income families by state and sector: 1998 to 2016, Postsecondary Education Opportunity, 290. 44 As indicated in Figure 6, the percent of students approved for free and reduced lunch and the percent of students receiving Pell Grants have increased over recent decades. While caution is needed due to variation in state use of the Federal school lunch program, estimates tabulated in the same manner over time provide a consistent indicator of change and some indication of differences by state. 45 Mortenson, T. (2017). College participation rates for students from low income families by state and sector: 1998 to 2016, Postsecondary Education Opportunity, 290. Equity Indicator 1: Who Enrolls in Postsecondary Education? 47 Equity Indicator 1i(i): Estimated college participation rates for students from lowincome families by state: 2016 Indicator Status: College participation rates vary by state and region, with higher rates in the northeastern states and region than in other parts of the U.S. NOTE: Caution is needed in reviewing this data to differential use of free and reduced lunch and also due to migrations in and out of states among Pell recipients. Participation rates for low-income students are estimated based on: 1)
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